The Finnish press never fails to recount the joke: “Lumi yllätti autoilijat!” – as the first snow catches half of the drivers unprepared and skidding with summer tires still on.

It’s not that we Finns are unaware of the upcoming winter or that someone accidentally forgets to change tires to the more robust “tri-peak” certified winter tires required by the local regulations. Mentally, dismissing the weather warnings – and deferring changing the tires to the last moment the law allows is often more manageable than fitting it into your busy weekly schedule.

Thus – every fall – winter surprises us Finns.

The same happens often in business, especially in the services sector. We tend to discount our business’s cyclical nature, making the cold weather catch us unaware. That is unless you are in the retail or consumer industries. The Christmas season is too big to miss twice, and it’s easy to figure out that one should avoid digging the ground when it’s frozen.

I’ve been figuring out why and how the mistake seems to repeat year after year. Quarter accounting, wrong target setting, and lazy sales sound plausible initially, but more is needed to explain the problem.

My current pet theory is that it’s too easy to work around the issue and forget that fixing it in situ costs money and time. But in reality, it often requires rigorous activities from sales and operations to get the ball rolling again. These activities could include targeted marketing campaigns, aggressive sales strategies, or operational efficiency improvements. We lose not only the time spent fixing the slump in business but also momentum when people tire from the stress.

The best way to fix the problem could be to make it more visible. For example, businesses can be separated into bespoke business units with different cycles. These units, tailored to specific business cycles, can not hide the slow sales behind high recurring revenue or mask the slow private sales with high public sector billing. This approach allows for a more accurate assessment of each unit’s performance and better planning for cyclical challenges.

Good leadership takes discipline and awareness of your business. By understanding and planning for the domain’s cyclical nature, we can avoid being surprised by the inevitable and achieve more with less hassle. This sense of discipline and control can empower business leaders to steer their organizations through cyclical business challenges with confidence and efficiency.